Climate change and the provision of ecosystem services in Alberta : Initial assessment of impacts and adaptation strategies on Alberta's rangelands

The primary goal of the ABMI is to provide relevant scientific information on the state of Alberta’s biodiversity to support natural resource and land-use decision making in the province. [...] We developed a comprehensive carbon dynamics model for this region using the CENTURY carbon model, and used it to assess the impacts of recent and future climate change on the provision of these two ecosystem services, and the potential for grazing management as a long-term climate change adaptation strategy to maintain these processes over the long term. [...] Climate change will alter the processes of these biophysical systems, with numerous and wide-ranging potential effects on the provision of ES and the well-being of the people who rely on those services (Shaw et al. [...] Understanding 1) the potential costs and benefits of climate change for a suite of ecosystem services, and 2) the potential costs and benefits of specific, actionable adaptation strategies will be valuable to communities working to identify climate change risks and evaluate adaptation strategies to address those risks. [...] Future work, including assessment of uncertainties in the model estimates, will refine these outcomes to ensure they are sufficiently relevant and accurate to evaluate potential trade-offs in the supply and value of ecosystem services in present and future climate conditions to support decision-making.