The impact of higher commodity prices on Canada's trade balance : Incidence des hausses de prix des produits de base sur la balance commerciale du Canada

The views expressed in these reports do not necessarily reflect the views of the Department of Foreign Affairs and International Trade or of the Government of Canada. [...] Amongst the three price scenarios, the base-case scenario, in which prices of commodities grow inline with the wholesale price index (WPI) revealed that the commodity sector will contribute to over $110 billion to the merchandise surplus by 2010. [...] In the low-price scenario, prices were lowered by 20% resulting in a contribution of $88.8 billion to the surplus, while in the high-price scenario where prices were increased by 20%, commodities will contribute $133 billion. [...] Since 2002, when the prolonged price increases began, the commodity price index had risen 78 per cent by the end of 2005, while the energy index rose 137 per cent over the same period.4. [...] The commodity price index will increase at the same rate as the forecasted increase in the wholesale price index (WPI).