Pathways

In the next 30 years, the UN forecasts that the growth rate of the world’s population will continue to slow, to 0.6 per cent per year, a rate roughly half of what it is today, and one third of what it was 30 years ago. [...] By the 2030s, China will be the world’s largest economy (having surpassed the United States in the mid-2020s), and India will have grown to the third-larg est economy according to OECD projections (see Figures 7-9, below). [...] This will be the result of the contin ued geographic fragmentation of production, as well as increased consumption in these countries, each of which will drive up trade volumes in excess of the counter-trends being observed for the increased near-sourcing of production. [...] For example, the Conference Board of Canada reports that from 2001 to 2013, the Canadian economy saw a $40 billion decline in annual exports of motor vehicle parts (along with smaller declines in aerospace and other manufactured goods) at the same time as a $40 billion increase in metals and a $50 billion increase in energy products.23 With the exception of base metals, which are exported more wid [...] These include the progressive removal of global trade barriers by governments and multilateral initiatives, the rapid development of industrial capacity and transportation infrastructure in emerging economies, and improvements in logistics services, technologies and systems.