Climate change and the future fire environment in Ontario

The increased fi re load is expected to increase the cost of fi re management in the province 16% by the year 2040 and 54% by the year 2090 over year 2000 costs, exclusive of infl ation or other factors. [...] In addition to increases in seasonal fi re severity indices, a number of these studies also predict increases in the frequency of occurrence of extreme fi re danger in some areas of the country (e.g., Stocks et al. [...] This study uses lightning- and people-caused fi re occurrence models developed specifi cally for Ontario with GCM projections of future climate and Ontario’s level of protection analysis software, LEOPARDS (see McAlpine and Hirsch 1999) to estimate the impacts of climate change on the fi re management organization both in terms of numbers of escaped fi res and with respect to changes in operationa [...] The sites of the GCM grid cell centres and OMNR weather stations used are shown in Figure 1. Fire Weather and Fire Danger To create the fi re climate of a future decade, the monthly anomalies were applied to the daily data from the OMNR fi re weather station archive from the years 1992-2001 (corresponding to the period over which lightning records were available). [...] The Fire Behaviour Prediction (FBP) System (Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group 1992) was used in conjunction with the Initial Spread Index (ISI), the Build-up Index (BUI) (calculated on the detection date of the fi re using the FWI System), and the fuel type associated with the fi re to estimate an initial rate of spread for each fi re.