2018 security outlook : Potential risks and threats : a foresight project

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The Academic Outreach program ran a multi-part foresight initiative from September 2015 to May 2016. Five leading global thinkers were commissioned to explore the drivers influencing the security risks and potential threats related to specific regions of the world and themes by the year 2018. This end point may seem arbitrary, but was deliberately selected to maximise the relevance of the foresight project in its aggregate. It is neither too far into the future so as to become overly abstract, and yet it is sufficiently remote from the present to allow contributor and reader to question current assumptions. The result is this report. Through the examination of a broad range of challenges linked to China, the Middle East, Russia, weapons of mass destruction and cyber-security, it provides a glimpse into the dynamics that may be influencing the globe’s near-future. It may be that some of our interlocutors hold ideas or promote findings that conflict with the views and analysis of the Service, but it is for this specific reason that there is value to engage in this kind of conversation.