Research by the IMF materials stocks, with market capitalization accounting for suggests that real GDP growth in the rest of the world varies roughly 50% of the S&P/TSX composite. [...] Moreover, the economic models used to derive the global CHINA'S SHARE OF WORLD GDP* economic impact do not account for the current stage of % 25 the economic cycle. [...] The energy and commodity sector is also growth in China would cause a 30-40% drop in crude oil leading the way back toward a trade surplus in the current and other commodity prices – we benchmark the latter to recovery, after having dipped during the recession. [...] The strength of the resource sector – particularly com- The ensuing modest rebound to 7% growth in China in modity prices for energy, base metals, and agriculture – 2013 would normally be accompanied by a partial recovery has been fuelled by robust economic growth in emerging in commodity prices. [...] They are meant to provide a rough (price of exports relative to the price of imports) and gross assessment of the impact of a Chinese recession, but the domestic income.