Climate change adaptive capacity of forestry stakeholders in the Boreal Plains Ecozone

The interior of central Canada is expected to experience greater impacts of climate change than many areas of Canada and the rest of the world (Field and Mortsch 2007). Impacts of particular concern to forest managers include increased frequency and intensity of fires (Flannigan et al. 2005), increased outbreaks of forest pests, both insects and disease (Johnston et al. 2006), increased frequency of drought leading to forest dieback, particularly on the southern fringe of the boreal forest (Hogg and Bernier 2005), and changes to growth and amount of harvestable wood volume (Johnston and Williamson 2005). These (and other) potential biophysical impacts are becoming more clear, although further detail is required before specific adaptation options can be identified (Johnston et al. 2006). In contrast, the effects of these impacts on forest management institutions and planning are poorly understood. Biophysical impacts are particularly important in the Boreal Plain Ecozone, as a significant portion of the economy of this region is resource based. It is clear that the forest industry, rural resource-based communities, and First Nations societies will be required to adapt. However, we currently have a limited understanding of the capacity of these human systems to adapt to future climate change. This has two important implications. First, it means that we do not have a basis for identifying and assessing sources of climate change vulnerability of social and economic systems in the forested regions of Canada's northern interior regions. Second, it means that we have limited information for policy development targeted at improving the adaptive capacity of forestry stakeholders in an area of the country that will be significantly impacted by climate change.