Update to Short-term Canadian natural gas deliverability 2009-2011 : Mise à jour Productibilité à court terme de gaz naturel au Canada 2009-2011

The relative trends in natural gas supply and demand will influence the natural gas price, and natural gas drilling activity and deliverability will respond to industry revenues, price expectations and input costs. [...] In response to lower prices, drilling activity in conventional natural gas and coalbed methane (CBM) in Canada and the U. S. has slowed to roughly half the levels of previous years. [...] These factors are outside the scope of this analysis, but may include: • The potential for considerable amounts of additional U. S. natural gas that could be brought onto the market relatively quickly, such as in the Rocky Mountains and shale gas areas in the south. [...] The cases also vary in terms of CBM activity and drilling levels of the emerging Montney and Horn River prospects in northeast B. C. A summary of the key assumptions used in the cases is provided in Table 1. Western Canada is Canada’s main source of marketable gas production and currently accounts for 97 per cent of total Canadian production. [...] Total western Canada deliverability in the Mid-range Case is projected to decrease as overall declines in conventional gas deliverability more than offset projected increases in deliverability from shale gas and tight gas in northeast B. C. The projection of CBM deliverability is shown in Figure 1. Overall Alberta deliverability is projected to decline at an average of about nine per cent per year