President Al Gore and the 2003 Iraq war

To fully appreciate the causal path leading to the onset of military hostilities, therefore, we need to understand George W. Bush the person, the powerful and determined neocons and vulcans who advised him, and the package of prejudices, emotions, beliefs and values shared by those responsible for crafting the Bush Doctrine. [...] To fully appreciate the causal path leading to the onset of military hostilities, therefore, we need to understand George W. Bush the person, the powerful and determined neocons and vulcans who advised him, and the package of prejudices, emotions, beliefs and values shared by those responsible for crafting the Bush Doctrine.2 The 'Bush-neocon-war' thesis, which I will label neoconism for lack of a [...] The stronger the evidence supporting the Gore-war path, the weaker the evidence that neoconservatism was relevant – Bush (like Gore) went to war for reasons that have little or nothing to do with the idiosyncratic features of the individuals who happen to be in power at the time. [...] The broader the level of analysis, the more 'structured' the variables, the less likely they are to change, and the more likely they are to induce consistent or very patterned behaviour from political leaders. [...] The political risks of inaction were far greater than the risks of war, as long as the public believed the war was launched in the interest of American (their) security.