More than meets the eye : Ontario alternative budget 2005

Given the importance of this adjustment Indeed, both the current-year estimates of for the government’s ability to show a reduc- revenue and expenditure and the medium- tion in the deficit in its first year in office, term fiscal outlook are designed more to one would have expected the Minister of Fi- manage expectations and maximize the gov- nance to be concerned when the Provincial ernment’s fle [...] Forecast revenue evi- meet three overriding political constraints: dently includes a substantial cushion against the need to balance the budget by the end of the possibility that growth forecasts from No- the government’s first term in office; the need vember may be revised downwards. [...] How- jected deficits as well as cash costs that are ever, a detailed review of the terms of the not included in budgetary deficit calculations securities up for refinancing shows that a will increase the government’s total borrow- substantial proportion of the debt which is ing by approximately 4% in 2004-5, 3% in subject to refinancing in the years 2005-6 to each of 2005-6 and 2006-7 and 2% in 20 [...] All of these exemptions un- that negative impact amounts to a retrospec- dermine the fairness of the system; all of these tive endorsement of the policies that created exemptions cost the people of this province it, and a fiscal plan designed to accommo- a substantial amount in lost revenue; and date Ontario’s public services to that reduced none of these exemptions meets the test of capacity amou [...] While the Government’s mishandling of More important, exemptions from the the tax issue during and after the election Employer Health Tax are inconsistent with has limited its political options, there are ar- the history behind its creation and the role 10.