NATO’s Soft Southern Flank /

Executive Summary NATO should engage in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to contain Russian and Iranian anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) and to block Russian attempts to establish an axis of autocracies in the region. [...] The ability of regimes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to stay in power after the Arab Spring with limited reforms, cosmetic government changes and shallow social payoffs is keeping the region gridlocked in a vicious circle of instability, slow economic growth, social stagnation and ensuing political radicalization. [...] The mostly unrelated phenomena of migration and terrorism have significantly contributed to an atmosphere of xenophobia and to the rise of populism in the West. [...] Since 2015, Russia has re-engaged militarily in the region as the main sponsor of Assad and Iran, providing key military force-enhancing assets to Iran and Hezbollah, and a veto in the UN Security Council. [...] But so far, NATO is not dealing in a comprehensive way with the region’s main challenges: (1) Iran’s and Russia’s A2/AD power projection destabilizing the region, (2) the threat of new state failures and waves of forced migration in the wake of such destabilization, and (3) the continued spread of extremism and terrorism from the region.