Summary of CSLS Long‐Term Fiscal & Economic Projections 2014 to 2038 M A N I T O B A B U R E A U. O F. S T A T I S T I C S RIGHT ANSWERS RIGHT NOW January 18, 2016 Summary of CSLS Long‐Term Fiscal & Economic Projections In July, the Centre for the Study of Living Standards (CSLS) released their report “Long‐term Fiscal and Economic Projections for Canada and the Provinces and Territories, 201 [...] GDP deflator (inflation) All provinces assumed to experience annual GDP deflation of 2.0% Working Age Population Working Age Population for each province provided by Statistics Canada's official population projections (M1 Scenario), based on demographic trends observed over 1991‐ 2011. At the national level this scenario projects annual working age population growth of 0.9% for 2014‐2038. [...] Average Hours Worked Split into three age groups, average hours worked in every province is assumed to decline at the national rate observed over 1976‐2014: ‐0.56% per year for ages 15‐24, ‐0.14% for ages 25‐54, and ‐0.25% for the 55+ age group. [...] Public Spending Public spending is assumed to be constant in real per capita terms, and nominally assumed to keep pace with population growth and a constant inflation rate of 2% This first chart showing average real GDP growth for the historic period (2000‐ 2014), and the projection period (split in half; 2014‐2026 & 2026‐2038), tells a couple of important stories: 1) Real economic growth [...] In both cases, non‐health spending is treated as for the base case above (i.e., 2% nominal per capita growth). However, it is difficult to assume that health spending will grow merely with general inflation. At the national level health care spending has exhibited annual growth of 2.8% over 2000‐2014. Manitoba Bureau of Statistics - January 2016 National and provincial/territorial result