No crisis on the horizon : Ontario debt, 1990-2015

The opinions and recommendations in this report, and any errors, are those of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publishers or funders of this report. [...] That’s why economists look at the debt-to-GDP ratio: it indicates the size of that debt relative to the economy and what share of the economy’s resources is required to pay for the debt. [...] Those deficits can im- pact debt levels, but the plan (if not the hope) is to allow the rising tide of economic growth and subsequent revenue recovery to do the post-recession work of reducing the deficit and the debt. [...] In order to make this historical comparison, this paper adjusts the net debt measure to reflect two critical changes in how it is measured and what is included: in 1999, Ontario Hydro debt was added to the provincial debt No Crisis on the Horizon 5 and broader public sector debt was added in 2005. [...] This finding indicates that, rather than teetering on the precipice of debt crisis, Ontario’s debt-to-GDP ratio is in the same range as it was six years af- ter the recession of the 1990s.